For the 2nd straight year the Ottawa Senators are matched up against the Pittsburgh Penguins in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Last year the Sens were the overwhelming favourites to move on to the 2nd round but this year you’d be hard pressed to find an analyst choosing the Senators to advance and most of the Fan votings have pick the Penguins 75% of the time.
Just about the only thing going for the Senators as they enter this post season is the fact that they’re starting on the road against a very young team. One of the major differences between this year’s series and last year’s is that all the expectations and pressure will be placed directly on Pittsburgh Penguins players and their management. The Penguins gave a considerable package of young players for future UFA Marian Hossa who was nicely termed as “Maid Marian” by Mike Milbury. This package included gritty forward Colby Armstrong, who took out Patrick Eaves last year with a questionable hit and valuable third-liner Erik Christensen. So they’re making a honest run for the Cup this year and a gritty, veteran team like the Ottawa Senators may be their match.
While many have since questioned the deadline acquisitions, in comparison, most would much prefer entering the playoffs without their 2 of the team’s top-5 leading scorers with players like Cory Stillman, Mike Commodore and Martin Lapointe as opposed to Patrick Eaves and Joe Corvo. The players involved in the deadline deals will be expected to lead their new teammates and there presence in the dressing room will be invaluable in Round 1.
The Senators will ice a depleted lineup, there’s no question about that. However, the depth of this organization will be shown as Daniel Alfredsson and Mike Fisher will be replaced by players like Nick Foligno and Cody Bass. While any offensive contribution by these 2 is a definite bonus, their gritty style of play will help soften up the skilled Penguins team. However, the Senators cannot afford to get into penalty trouble as the club will be without 3 of their top-4 penalty killers as Alfredsson, Fisher and Chris Kelly will all miss at least the first week of the playoffs. The Senators could ice as many as 11 Canadian forwards and 4 defensemen which has proved in the past to be a definite positive in the march to hockey’s Holy Grail.
The Senators will probably counter the Penguins’ potent offense with the lineup listed below. Some expect that at the very least Chris Kelly will make himself available to the them and possibly Mike Fisher afterwards. However Team Captain Daniel Alfredsson will most likely be out for a prolonged period of time. As of Game 1 we can expect:
Forwards:
Heatley-Spezza-Robitaille
Stillman-Vermette-Donovan
Foligno-McAmmond-Neil
Schubert-Bass-Lapointe
Defense:
Phillips-Volchenkov
Redden-Commodore
Meszaros-Lee/Richardson
Goal:
Gerber
Emery
This lineup spells grit and it can largely be compared to the Blue Team that beat Ottawa in the 2001-02 playoffs without their captain Mats Sundin. They rode the backs of Gary Roberts Tie Domi, Darcy Tucker and Alyn McCauley in a tough 7-game series. However the big key to Toronto’s victory was Curtis Joseph’s ability to shut-down Ottawa’s potent offense. Many series are decided by the goaltenders and this series will be no different. Which ever tandem of goalies outplays the other will definitely lead their Team to Round 2. With tons to prove in both Martin Gerber and Marc-Andre Fleury, the biggest battle on the ice may be played by 2 players about 200 feet away from each other.
The key to this series for the Senators is to get a split in Pittsburgh and attempt to shatter their confidence. The Pens are an inexperienced team with many of their players only having 5 games of playoff experience which was gained in last year’s loss to Ottawa.
My prediction: Sens in 6 and we’ll prove 99% of the NHL analysts wrong
